The US threatens an imminent attack that could be fatal: "Iran still has a few tricks up its sleeve."

The first leaks of a possible US attack on Iran are arriving. There are many indications, but with Donald Trump, nothing can be taken for granted or ruled out. Several US bombers have begun using bases in Spain and have begun maneuvers. On the other hand, according to an exclusive report by Bloomberg , senior US officials are preparing for the possibility of an attack on Iran in the coming days, according to people familiar with the matter, an almost clear sign that Washington is preparing the infrastructure to directly enter into conflict with Tehran. While the direct involvement of the US in the attacks is imminent, analysts are beginning to make their predictions about what the scenario could be. They all seem to agree on one thing: an Iran on the ropes could be a very dangerous Iran. Tehran has not yet unleashed its full "war potential" nor has it implemented the most "destructive" measures. The great risk is that a cornered Iranian regime wants to "die killing," that is, by directly attacking oil facilities.

The situation is still evolving and could change very quickly, according to Bloomberg sources, who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations. Some of them have even mentioned planning an attack this weekend. Senior leaders at several federal agencies have also begun preparing for this scenario. The truth is that President Donald Trump has been publicly mulling for days about the possibility of requesting such an attack against Iran, which has been at war with Israel for nearly a week. Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday that he has "ideas about what to do" and that he prefers to make the "final decision a second earlier than planned" because the situation in the Middle East is unstable.

A few hours earlier, Trump said, "I might. I might not," when asked if he was getting close to an attack on Iran. A White House official stated that all options remain on the table. Although the risk seems very high, the truth is that oil is barely budging today and gold is down 1%, dropping below $3,400 an ounce. This tense calm could be suddenly shattered if the US ends up intervening and Iran decides to use the few cartridges left in its "shotgun," the most dangerous and destructive rounds.

Trump has given Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei one last chance to accept "unconditional surrender," dismantle his nuclear and ballistic missile programs , and disband Iran's militant groups in the region. Khamenei has steadfastly refused. Unless there is an immediate change of stance, these cards on the table undoubtedly increase the chances that the US will ultimately join Israel's campaign to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. Khamenei has asserted that the damage to the US will be irreparable . This would demonstrate Tehran's belief that it retains the ability to attack US military bases, as well as oil production and transportation in the region, including in the Strait of Hormuz (a key artery connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and through which a quarter of the world's crude oil trade passes).

"Iran's capabilities are uncertain after the six-day Israeli bombardment . The US will also try to anticipate Iranian actions. However, we assume that Iran still has some tricks up its sleeve , so the global economy will suffer somewhat from the US entry into the conflict," warns Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, in a comprehensive report outlining the "decision tree" facing Washington and Tehran.

The US will defend the Gulf Arab states against any missile attacks and will try to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, Gertken notes. Ultimately, he explains, a major oil crisis would shake the economic foundations of the Trump administration , potentially prompting the US to seek regime change rather than simply destroying nuclear facilities. Still, he gauges, if the US attacks, Iran will likely try to close Hormuz .

BCA Research: "If the survival of the Iranian regime is at stake, it would be much more likely to adopt its most extreme options to damage the global economy."

After all, the US and Israel could always decide to overthrow the regime, so it's likely that the regime will conclude that it must use its threat or lose. "At that point, the Iranian regime's survival would be at stake, and it would be much more likely to adopt its most extreme options to damage the global economy and try to undermine US political will for a larger war," the BCA strategist writes.

"An oil shock would weaken US and global support for the war, and while it would provoke a fierce US backlash, it would also undermine the Israeli case for regime change once the nuclear program is destroyed. Our assumption is that Iran has been hiding its strengths and remains capable of disrupting the Strait for at least a few days, perhaps a few weeks, through mines, drones, missiles, submarines, and speedboats intended to halt traffic," the analyst adds. If any force is capable of clearing the waters quickly, it would be the US Navy, but it could still take some time, especially if the waters are heavily mined, he adds.

An early attack on Hormuz to neutralize the Iranian threat could be successful, Gertken believes, but Iran has been planning for this event for decades and only needs to drive away commercial traffic to generate an economic crisis. "Therefore, we give a 60/40 probability of a major oil crisis in this scenario."

This scenario fits with the worst-case scenarios drawn by Capital Economics analysts. While their most benign perspective is that Israel will relax its attacks if it sees that it has sufficiently weakened Tehran, the other three scenarios they suggest involve initial resistance from Iran. This raises the possibility of a quick surrender by Khamenei if he realizes that retaliation from Israel and the US would be too much, of a regime change that could be uneven , or of a fierce resilience by Khamenei and his followers that could only worsen the overall situation, since Iran, as Gertken predicted, could try to "die killing."

In this scenario, the team of analysts led by William Jackson explains, the Iranian regime resists public pressure for change, perhaps intensifying domestic repression. Israel, the US, and Iran continue to attack each other. Shipping and energy transport in the Middle East suffer more frequent attacks by Iran and its allies. Western sanctions against Iran are further tightened. This scenario could result in a prolonged rise in the price of oil, in the range of $130-150 per barrel, raise inflation in advanced economies by 2% to 2.5% by the end of 2025, and constitute a significant factor of risk aversion in the markets.

Shell , one of the world's largest oil and natural gas trading companies, has activated contingency plans to address the risk that the conflict between Israel and Iran could disrupt energy flows in the Middle East. Its chief executive, Wael Sawan , warned at an energy forum in Tokyo that a possible blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could have a "major impact on global trade." Although no significant disruption has occurred so far, markets remain on high alert. Analysts at Capital Economics are not the only ones who are even talking about a rise in oil prices to $150.

Tensions have been rising with the possibility of the US joining the conflict, increasing the risk of more direct disruptive actions against ships and critical infrastructure in the region. The Strait of Hormuz has already been subject to interference , including the blocking of navigation signals, Sawan noted, further complicating maritime logistics. Shell has stepped up precautions with its shipments in the Middle East, aware that any escalation could seriously affect global energy supplies.

Some shipping companies are already taking preventive measures. Qatar, for example, has asked oil tankers to wait outside the strait until they are cleared to load, while Japan's Nippon Yusen has ordered its vessels to maintain a safe distance from the Iranian coast. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets warn that if Iran perceives an existential threat, it could intensify its actions against maritime traffic, which would jeopardize international energy stability.